Setting description

Treatments equally effective across the biomarker signatures

Simulations setting

Survival curves (by signature)


PFS distributions (by signature)


Treatment effects (by signature)

signature var Other Hormone_therapies Taxel_therapies Niraparib
all param scale = 0.024, shape = 1.3 scale = 0.024, shape = 1.3 scale = 0.024, shape = 1.3 scale = 0.024, shape = 1.3
summary mean = 39, median = 31.9 mean = 39, median = 31.9 mean = 39, median = 31.9 mean = 39, median = 31.9
effect af = 1, hr = 1 af = 1, hr = 1 af = 1, hr = 1 af = 1, hr = 1
TP53- param scale = 0.024, shape = 1.3 scale = 0.024, shape = 1.3 scale = 0.024, shape = 1.3 scale = 0.024, shape = 1.3
summary mean = 39, median = 31.9 mean = 39, median = 31.9 mean = 39, median = 31.9 mean = 39, median = 31.9
effect af = 1, hr = 1 af = 1, hr = 1 af = 1, hr = 1 af = 1, hr = 1
TP53+ param scale = 0.024, shape = 1.3 scale = 0.024, shape = 1.3 scale = 0.024, shape = 1.3 scale = 0.024, shape = 1.3
summary mean = 39, median = 31.9 mean = 39, median = 31.9 mean = 39, median = 31.9 mean = 39, median = 31.9
effect af = 1, hr = 1 af = 1, hr = 1 af = 1, hr = 1 af = 1, hr = 1
DRD+ param scale = 0.024, shape = 1.3 scale = 0.024, shape = 1.3 scale = 0.024, shape = 1.3 scale = 0.024, shape = 1.3
summary mean = 39, median = 31.9 mean = 39, median = 31.9 mean = 39, median = 31.9 mean = 39, median = 31.9
effect af = 1, hr = 1 af = 1, hr = 1 af = 1, hr = 1 af = 1, hr = 1
TEfus+ param scale = 0.024, shape = 1.3 scale = 0.024, shape = 1.3 scale = 0.024, shape = 1.3 scale = 0.024, shape = 1.3
summary mean = 39, median = 31.9 mean = 39, median = 31.9 mean = 39, median = 31.9 mean = 39, median = 31.9
effect af = 1, hr = 1 af = 1, hr = 1 af = 1, hr = 1 af = 1, hr = 1



Survival curves (by subgroup)


PFS distributions (by subgroup)


Treatment effects (by subgroup)

subtype var Other Hormone_therapies Taxel_therapies Niraparib
— param scale = 0.024, shape = 1.3 scale = 0.024, shape = 1.3 scale = 0.024, shape = 1.3 scale = 0.024, shape = 1.3
summary mean = 39, median = 31.9 mean = 39, median = 31.9 mean = 39, median = 31.9 mean = 39, median = 31.9
effect af = 1, hr = 1 af = 1, hr = 1 af = 1, hr = 1 af = 1, hr = 1
–+ param scale = 0.024, shape = 1.3 scale = 0.024, shape = 1.3 scale = 0.024, shape = 1.3 scale = 0.024, shape = 1.3
summary mean = 39, median = 31.9 mean = 39, median = 31.9 mean = 39, median = 31.9 mean = 39, median = 31.9
effect af = 1, hr = 1 af = 1, hr = 1 af = 1, hr = 1 af = 1, hr = 1
-+- param scale = 0.024, shape = 1.3 scale = 0.024, shape = 1.3 scale = 0.024, shape = 1.3 scale = 0.024, shape = 1.3
summary mean = 39, median = 31.9 mean = 39, median = 31.9 mean = 39, median = 31.9 mean = 39, median = 31.9
effect af = 1, hr = 1 af = 1, hr = 1 af = 1, hr = 1 af = 1, hr = 1
-++ param scale = 0.024, shape = 1.3 scale = 0.024, shape = 1.3 scale = 0.024, shape = 1.3 scale = 0.024, shape = 1.3
summary mean = 39, median = 31.9 mean = 39, median = 31.9 mean = 39, median = 31.9 mean = 39, median = 31.9
effect af = 1, hr = 1 af = 1, hr = 1 af = 1, hr = 1 af = 1, hr = 1
+– param scale = 0.024, shape = 1.3 scale = 0.024, shape = 1.3 scale = 0.024, shape = 1.3 scale = 0.024, shape = 1.3
summary mean = 39, median = 31.9 mean = 39, median = 31.9 mean = 39, median = 31.9 mean = 39, median = 31.9
effect af = 1, hr = 1 af = 1, hr = 1 af = 1, hr = 1 af = 1, hr = 1
+-+ param scale = 0.024, shape = 1.3 scale = 0.024, shape = 1.3 scale = 0.024, shape = 1.3 scale = 0.024, shape = 1.3
summary mean = 39, median = 31.9 mean = 39, median = 31.9 mean = 39, median = 31.9 mean = 39, median = 31.9
effect af = 1, hr = 1 af = 1, hr = 1 af = 1, hr = 1 af = 1, hr = 1
++- param scale = 0.024, shape = 1.3 scale = 0.024, shape = 1.3 scale = 0.024, shape = 1.3 scale = 0.024, shape = 1.3
summary mean = 39, median = 31.9 mean = 39, median = 31.9 mean = 39, median = 31.9 mean = 39, median = 31.9
effect af = 1, hr = 1 af = 1, hr = 1 af = 1, hr = 1 af = 1, hr = 1
+++ param scale = 0.024, shape = 1.3 scale = 0.024, shape = 1.3 scale = 0.024, shape = 1.3 scale = 0.024, shape = 1.3
summary mean = 39, median = 31.9 mean = 39, median = 31.9 mean = 39, median = 31.9 mean = 39, median = 31.9
effect af = 1, hr = 1 af = 1, hr = 1 af = 1, hr = 1 af = 1, hr = 1

Errors and power


graduation (counts and proportions):
Hormone_therapies Taxel_therapies Niraparib
all 8 7 5
TP53- 10 13 10
TP53+ 21 25 17
DRD+ 20 22 8
TEfus+ 12 11 15
Hormone_therapies Taxel_therapies Niraparib
all 0.016 0.014 0.010
TP53- 0.020 0.026 0.020
TP53+ 0.042 0.050 0.034
DRD+ 0.040 0.044 0.016
TEfus+ 0.024 0.022 0.030
futility (counts and proportions):
Hormone_therapies Taxel_therapies Niraparib
all 23 35 38
TP53- 167 145 167
TP53+ 130 159 162
DRD+ 84 78 148
TEfus+ 133 136 147
Hormone_therapies Taxel_therapies Niraparib
all 0.046 0.070 0.076
TP53- 0.334 0.290 0.334
TP53+ 0.260 0.318 0.324
DRD+ 0.168 0.156 0.296
TEfus+ 0.266 0.272 0.294
max sample size (counts and proportions):
Hormone_therapies Taxel_therapies Niraparib
all 0 0 0
TP53- 58 69 51
TP53+ 14 10 10
DRD+ 0 0 0
TEfus+ 0 0 0
Hormone_therapies Taxel_therapies Niraparib
all 0.000 0.000 0.000
TP53- 0.116 0.138 0.102
TP53+ 0.028 0.020 0.020
DRD+ 0.000 0.000 0.000
TEfus+ 0.000 0.000 0.000


Errors & power

The overall error was 0.306.
The corresponding errors separate for the different treatments were:

Hormone_therapies   Taxel_therapies         Niraparib 
            0.118             0.140             0.080

The overall power was .
The corresponding power separate for the different treatments were:

NULL

Median results at the end of the trial

By signature:
signature var Control Hormone_therapies Taxel_therapies Niraparib
all graduation 0 8 7 5
futility 0 23 35 38
max_n 0 0 0 0
n 706 (639, 752) 342 (202, 484) 356 (196, 493) 350 (198, 485)
n_unique 706 (639, 752) 342 (202, 484) 356 (196, 493) 350 (198, 485)
time_trial 60 (60, 60) 60 (60, 60) 60 (60, 60) 60 (60, 60)
time_stop NA (NA, NA) 36 (23, 56) 32 (7, 49) 34 (20, 50)
post_p NA (NA, NA) 0.49 (0.08, 0.87) 0.47 (0.08, 0.89) 0.52 (0.09, 0.89)
rate 0.021 (0.019, 0.022) 0.021 (0.019, 0.024) 0.021 (0.019, 0.024) 0.021 (0.019, 0.024)
TP53- graduation 0 10 13 10
futility 0 167 145 167
max_n 0 58 69 51
n 386 (337, 426) 194 (72, 300) 200 (65, 301) 191 (71, 300)
n_unique 386 (337, 426) 194 (72, 300) 200 (65, 301) 191 (71, 300)
time_trial 60 (60, 60) 60 (25, 60) 60 (26, 60) 60 (23, 60)
time_stop NA (NA, NA) 34 (18, 53) 32 (18, 53) 29 (18, 54)
post_p NA (NA, NA) 0.48 (0.07, 0.85) 0.46 (0.09, 0.9) 0.47 (0.09, 0.88)
rate 0.021 (0.019, 0.023) 0.022 (0.019, 0.026) 0.022 (0.019, 0.026) 0.021 (0.019, 0.025)
TP53+ graduation 0 21 25 17
futility 0 130 159 162
max_n 0 14 10 10
n 318 (277, 351) 154 (64, 247) 150 (61, 247) 162 (63, 249)
n_unique 318 (277, 351) 154 (64, 247) 150 (61, 247) 162 (63, 249)
time_trial 60 (60, 60) 60 (28, 60) 60 (24, 60) 60 (25, 60)
time_stop NA (NA, NA) 34 (22, 51) 33 (18, 54) 35 (20, 53)
post_p NA (NA, NA) 0.46 (0.11, 0.89) 0.48 (0.08, 0.88) 0.54 (0.11, 0.9)
rate 0.021 (0.019, 0.023) 0.021 (0.019, 0.026) 0.022 (0.019, 0.026) 0.021 (0.018, 0.025)
DRD+ graduation 0 20 22 8
futility 0 84 78 148
max_n 0 0 0 0
n 192 (159, 218) 91 (50, 138) 92 (48, 141) 98 (52, 152)
n_unique 192 (159, 218) 91 (50, 138) 92 (48, 141) 98 (52, 152)
time_trial 60 (60, 60) 60 (44, 60) 60 (46, 60) 60 (27, 60)
time_stop NA (NA, NA) 44 (32, 56) 46 (33, 57) 32 (20, 53)
post_p NA (NA, NA) 0.45 (0.09, 0.87) 0.47 (0.1, 0.9) 0.5 (0.1, 0.87)
rate 0.021 (0.018, 0.024) 0.021 (0.018, 0.027) 0.021 (0.017, 0.028) 0.022 (0.019, 0.027)
TEfus+ graduation 0 12 11 15
futility 0 133 136 147
max_n 0 0 0 0
n 256 (219, 286) 125 (58, 190) 121 (56, 195) 124 (59, 204)
n_unique 256 (219, 286) 125 (58, 190) 121 (56, 195) 124 (59, 204)
time_trial 60 (60, 60) 60 (32, 60) 60 (31, 60) 60 (28, 60)
time_stop NA (NA, NA) 36 (26, 54) 37 (22, 55) 34 (23, 54)
post_p NA (NA, NA) 0.45 (0.08, 0.85) 0.47 (0.09, 0.85) 0.5 (0.1, 0.9)
rate 0.021 (0.019, 0.023) 0.022 (0.018, 0.026) 0.022 (0.018, 0.027) 0.022 (0.018, 0.026)


By subgroup combinations:
subtype var Control Hormone_therapies Taxel_therapies Niraparib
— graduation 0 185 174 185
futility 0 0 0 0
max_n 0 58 69 50
n 215 (178, 245) 98 (34, 194) 103 (28, 195) 92 (27, 183)
n_unique 215 (178, 245) 98 (34, 194) 103 (28, 195) 92 (27, 183)
post_p NA (NA, NA) 0.47 (0.1, 0.88) 0.46 (0.1, 0.87) 0.47 (0.11, 0.87)
rate 0.021 (0.018, 0.024) 0.022 (0.018, 0.027) 0.022 (0.018, 0.028) 0.021 (0.017, 0.027)
–+ graduation 0 255 247 253
futility 0 0 0 0
max_n 0 57 65 50
n 63 (48, 76) 25 (9, 57) 28 (10, 60) 25 (9, 59)
n_unique 63 (48, 76) 25 (9, 57) 28 (10, 60) 25 (9, 59)
post_p NA (NA, NA) 0.44 (0.12, 0.87) 0.45 (0.1, 0.85) 0.48 (0.09, 0.88)
rate 0.021 (0.016, 0.026) 0.023 (0.016, 0.033) 0.023 (0.016, 0.034) 0.022 (0.015, 0.036)
-+- graduation 0 158 204 187
futility 0 0 0 0
max_n 0 14 10 10
n 137 (114, 160) 59 (19, 125) 56 (22, 131) 65 (19, 126)
n_unique 137 (114, 160) 59 (19, 125) 56 (22, 131) 65 (19, 126)
post_p NA (NA, NA) 0.45 (0.11, 0.88) 0.46 (0.11, 0.87) 0.48 (0.13, 0.9)
rate 0.021 (0.018, 0.025) 0.022 (0.017, 0.03) 0.022 (0.018, 0.03) 0.022 (0.017, 0.029)
-++ graduation 0 241 277 267
futility 0 0 0 0
max_n 0 14 10 10
n 98 (76, 117) 45 (15, 92) 39 (17, 93) 44 (13, 90)
n_unique 98 (76, 117) 45 (15, 92) 39 (17, 93) 44 (13, 90)
post_p NA (NA, NA) 0.46 (0.12, 0.85) 0.46 (0.12, 0.86) 0.49 (0.12, 0.86)
rate 0.021 (0.017, 0.025) 0.022 (0.017, 0.03) 0.022 (0.017, 0.03) 0.021 (0.017, 0.031)
+– graduation 0 240 225 255
futility 0 0 0 0
max_n 0 58 65 48
n 54 (41, 67) 25 (8, 51) 24 (7, 50) 23 (11, 53)
n_unique 54 (41, 67) 25 (8, 51) 24 (7, 50) 23 (11, 53)
post_p NA (NA, NA) 0.5 (0.1, 0.84) 0.48 (0.12, 0.86) 0.44 (0.13, 0.85)
rate 0.021 (0.016, 0.027) 0.022 (0.015, 0.036) 0.022 (0.015, 0.035) 0.023 (0.017, 0.034)
+-+ graduation 0 294 281 306
futility 0 0 0 0
max_n 0 57 61 48
n 55 (39, 68) 23 (7, 48) 23 (7, 48) 22 (12, 54)
n_unique 55 (39, 68) 23 (7, 48) 23 (7, 48) 22 (12, 54)
post_p NA (NA, NA) 0.45 (0.12, 0.88) 0.49 (0.14, 0.87) 0.48 (0.11, 0.84)
rate 0.021 (0.016, 0.027) 0.023 (0.014, 0.036) 0.022 (0.014, 0.034) 0.023 (0.016, 0.032)
++- graduation 0 220 257 257
futility 0 0 0 0
max_n 0 13 9 10
n 42 (30, 53) 19 (7, 38) 19 (6, 38) 18 (9, 41)
n_unique 42 (30, 53) 19 (7, 38) 19 (6, 38) 18 (9, 41)
post_p NA (NA, NA) 0.5 (0.13, 0.85) 0.49 (0.13, 0.85) 0.47 (0.12, 0.86)
rate 0.021 (0.015, 0.027) 0.021 (0.014, 0.037) 0.022 (0.014, 0.035) 0.022 (0.015, 0.034)
+++ graduation 0 287 318 314
futility 0 0 0 0
max_n 0 13 9 10
n 41 (29, 51) 17 (6, 39) 16 (5, 38) 18 (9, 40)
n_unique 41 (29, 51) 17 (6, 39) 16 (5, 38) 18 (9, 40)
post_p NA (NA, NA) 0.48 (0.13, 0.84) 0.47 (0.12, 0.83) 0.48 (0.13, 0.85)
rate 0.021 (0.015, 0.027) 0.022 (0.014, 0.037) 0.022 (0.014, 0.038) 0.022 (0.015, 0.034)

Median results over time

Signatures:

Posterior probabilities

Randomization probabilities

PFS rates


Subgroup combinations:

Posterior probabilities

Randomization probabilities

PFS rates

Median results at stop

By signature

Graduation:
signature var Hormone_therapies Taxel_therapies Niraparib
all count 8 7 5
time_stop 30 (23, 46) 33 (25, 48) 45 (29, 49)
n_trt 214 (146, 359) 255 (194, 356) 270 (176, 439)
n_control 298 (248, 512) 359 (245, 519) 534 (343, 574)
post_p 0.99 (0.89, 1) 0.98 (0.96, 0.99) 0.99 (0.95, 0.99)
order 1 (1, 2.6) 1 (1, 1.4) 2 (1, 2)
TP53- count 10 13 10
time_stop 41 (21, 52) 40 (27, 55) 48 (35, 57)
n_trt 178 (103, 262) 154 (93, 264) 174 (115, 300)
n_control 254 (120, 333) 221 (145, 328) 298 (210, 374)
post_p 0.97 (0.88, 1) 0.97 (0.89, 0.99) 0.98 (0.93, 1)
order 1 (1, 2) 1 (1, 1.8) 2 (1, 3.2)
TP53+ count 21 25 17
time_stop 36 (27, 44) 47 (28, 56) 41 (24, 57)
n_trt 115 (79, 170) 148 (106, 218) 166 (84, 228)
n_control 175 (110, 238) 228 (133, 279) 216 (112, 298)
post_p 0.96 (0.9, 0.99) 0.98 (0.94, 1) 0.98 (0.94, 0.99)
order 1 (1, 2) 1 (1, 1) 1 (1, 2.4)
DRD+ count 20 22 8
time_stop 43 (29, 56) 40 (33, 56) 43 (32, 54)
n_trt 80 (56, 131) 82 (58, 118) 86 (64, 123)
n_control 130 (91, 189) 117 (88, 178) 152 (106, 187)
post_p 0.97 (0.89, 0.99) 0.98 (0.93, 1) 0.97 (0.91, 0.99)
order 1 (1, 2) 1 (1, 2) 2 (1, 4)
TEfus+ count 12 11 15
time_stop 38 (27, 52) 41 (32, 47) 48 (33, 58)
n_trt 86 (74, 122) 125 (81, 154) 123 (98, 181)
n_control 156 (107, 211) 158 (129, 194) 189 (151, 258)
post_p 0.97 (0.94, 1) 0.96 (0.9, 1) 0.98 (0.93, 1)
order 1 (1, 3) 1 (1, 2) 1 (1, 1.6)
Futility:
signature var Hormone_therapies Taxel_therapies Niraparib
all count 23 35 38
time_stop 37 (25, 56) 31 (7, 50) 33 (19, 49)
n_trt 155 (113, 341) 140 (54, 294) 172 (102, 313)
n_control 407 (256, 709) 345 (72, 649) 374 (192, 558)
post_p 0.04 (0.01, 0.2) 0.06 (0, 0.21) 0.05 (0.02, 0.2)
order 3 (1.2, 6) 3 (1, 7.2) 4 (1.7, 7)
TP53- count 167 145 167
time_stop 34 (18, 53) 32 (18, 52) 28 (18, 52)
n_trt 97 (54, 228) 91 (52, 212) 95 (55, 190)
n_control 211 (92, 338) 187 (95, 339) 168 (97, 336)
post_p 0.14 (0.03, 0.26) 0.12 (0.02, 0.26) 0.16 (0.04, 0.27)
order 2 (1, 5) 2 (1, 4.6) 2 (1, 5)
TP53+ count 130 159 162
time_stop 34 (22, 52) 31 (17, 53) 33 (20, 52)
n_trt 80 (51, 152) 83 (52, 168) 87 (52, 162)
n_control 173 (103, 275) 159 (79, 294) 164 (88, 277)
post_p 0.14 (0.04, 0.26) 0.16 (0.04, 0.26) 0.16 (0.04, 0.25)
order 2 (1, 5) 2 (1, 5) 2 (1, 5)
DRD+ count 84 78 148
time_stop 46 (33, 56) 47 (33, 57) 32 (20, 53)
n_trt 67 (52, 109) 68 (51, 108) 62 (51, 99)
n_control 140 (99, 179) 150 (95, 187) 94 (56, 171)
post_p 0.09 (0.02, 0.23) 0.11 (0.03, 0.25) 0.16 (0.05, 0.28)
order 3.5 (2, 7) 4 (2, 7) 2 (1, 5)
TEfus+ count 133 136 147
time_stop 36 (26, 54) 37 (22, 55) 33 (23, 51)
n_trt 68 (53, 130) 74 (51, 130) 74 (51, 131)
n_control 151 (95, 236) 146 (80, 235) 131 (81, 215)
post_p 0.14 (0.03, 0.27) 0.12 (0.03, 0.26) 0.14 (0.04, 0.27)
order 3 (1, 5) 3 (1, 6) 3 (1, 6)


By subgroup combinations

Graduation:
signature treatment var — –+ -+- -++ +– +-+ ++- +++
all Hormone_therapies count 8 8 8 8 8 8 8 8
time 30 (23, 46) 30 (23, 46) 30 (23, 46) 30 (23, 46) 30 (23, 46) 30 (23, 46) 30 (23, 46) 30 (23, 46)
n 64 (36, 109) 21 (14, 34) 44 (25, 55) 30 (24, 67) 18 (10, 24) 11 (9, 26) 10 (7, 15) 18 (8, 28)
post_p 0.8 (0.59, 0.89) 0.66 (0.56, 0.83) 0.77 (0.62, 0.82) 0.75 (0.64, 0.87) 0.63 (0.57, 0.7) 0.65 (0.56, 0.75) 0.62 (0.56, 0.83) 0.68 (0.58, 0.86)
r_prob 0.37 (0.37, 0.37) 0.19 (0.19, 0.19) 0.18 (0.18, 0.18) 0.12 (0.12, 0.12) 0 (0, 0) 0 (0, 0) 0 (0, 0) 0 (0, 0)
rate 0.019 (0.014, 0.021) 0.009 (0.007, 0.017) 0.015 (0.01, 0.019) 0.014 (0.006, 0.017) 0.015 (0.005, 0.021) 0.009 (0, 0.019) 0.003 (0, 0.013) 0.011 (0, 0.015)
Taxel_therapies count 7 7 7 7 7 7 7 7
time 33 (25, 48) 33 (25, 48) 33 (25, 48) 33 (25, 48) 33 (25, 48) 33 (25, 48) 33 (25, 48) 33 (25, 48)
n 72 (43, 118) 31 (21, 40) 54 (38, 83) 39 (22, 52) 18 (11, 31) 18 (7, 33) 16 (9, 22) 11 (7, 24)
post_p 0.68 (0.57, 0.94) 0.62 (0.58, 0.79) 0.73 (0.62, 0.8) 0.62 (0.56, 0.89) 0.74 (0.66, 0.88) 0.67 (0.58, 0.87) 0.61 (0.57, 0.7) 0.61 (0.56, 0.67)
r_prob 0.25 (0.25, 0.25) 0.38 (0.38, 0.38) 0.41 (0.41, 0.41) 0.41 (0.41, 0.41) 0 (0, 0) 0 (0, 0) 0 (0, 0) 0 (0, 0)
rate 0.019 (0.012, 0.021) 0.015 (0.006, 0.019) 0.016 (0.011, 0.021) 0.018 (0.011, 0.021) 0.015 (0.003, 0.02) 0.008 (0, 0.017) 0.016 (0.006, 0.021) 0.012 (0, 0.018)
Niraparib count 5 5 5 5 5 5 5 5
time 45 (29, 49) 45 (29, 49) 45 (29, 49) 45 (29, 49) 45 (29, 49) 45 (29, 49) 45 (29, 49) 45 (29, 49)
n 113 (29, 172) 30 (12, 37) 40 (30, 75) 30 (14, 47) 18 (10, 27) 23 (13, 36) 20 (16, 32) 25 (18, 31)
post_p 0.72 (0.62, 0.87) 0.63 (0.59, 0.81) 0.64 (0.6, 0.85) 0.72 (0.56, 0.81) 0.61 (0.6, 0.71) 0.62 (0.56, 0.83) 0.79 (0.77, 0.9) 0.75 (0.67, 0.81)
r_prob 0 (0, 0) 0.06 (0.06, 0.06) 0 (0, 0) 0.06 (0.06, 0.06) 0.5 (0.5, 0.5) 0.5 (0.5, 0.5) 0.5 (0.5, 0.5) 0.5 (0.5, 0.5)
rate 0.016 (0.014, 0.018) 0.016 (0.009, 0.018) 0.018 (0.011, 0.02) 0.018 (0.005, 0.021) 0.017 (0.014, 0.02) 0.016 (0.013, 0.019) 0.013 (0.013, 0.016) 0.013 (0.01, 0.02)
TP53- Hormone_therapies count 10 10 10 10
time 41 (21, 52) 41 (21, 52) 41 (21, 52) 41 (21, 52)
n 100 (54, 169) 27 (14, 38) 21 (8, 45) 16 (10, 37)
post_p 0.78 (0.77, 0.99) 0.76 (0.7, 0.86) 0.7 (0.61, 0.86) 0.74 (0.61, 0.88)
r_prob 0.37 (0.37, 0.37) 0.19 (0.19, 0.19) 0 (0, 0) 0 (0, 0)
rate 0.017 (0.012, 0.019) 0.015 (0, 0.018) 0.013 (0, 0.019) 0.012 (0, 0.018)
Taxel_therapies count 13 13 13 13
time 40 (27, 55) 40 (27, 55) 40 (27, 55) 40 (27, 55)
n 75 (45, 156) 33 (19, 45) 23 (5, 36) 23 (11, 45)
post_p 0.8 (0.71, 0.89) 0.81 (0.72, 0.88) 0.72 (0.61, 0.82) 0.75 (0.67, 0.81)
r_prob 0.25 (0.25, 0.25) 0.38 (0.38, 0.38) 0 (0, 0) 0 (0, 0)
rate 0.017 (0.013, 0.02) 0.014 (0.008, 0.018) 0.011 (0.001, 0.02) 0.011 (0.007, 0.017)
Niraparib count 10 10 10 10
time 48 (35, 57) 48 (35, 57) 48 (35, 57) 48 (35, 57)
n 88 (54, 168) 24 (15, 56) 30 (16, 49) 28 (18, 44)
post_p 0.78 (0.72, 0.94) 0.8 (0.74, 0.9) 0.77 (0.71, 0.93) 0.77 (0.73, 0.84)
r_prob 0 (0, 0) 0.06 (0.06, 0.06) 0.5 (0.5, 0.5) 0.5 (0.5, 0.5)
rate 0.018 (0.015, 0.02) 0.014 (0.008, 0.017) 0.016 (0.013, 0.022) 0.018 (0.011, 0.022)
TP53+ Hormone_therapies count 21 21 21 21
time 36 (27, 44) 36 (27, 44) 36 (27, 44) 36 (27, 44)
n 43 (25, 65) 41 (23, 66) 12 (7, 24) 18 (8, 30)
post_p 0.76 (0.7, 0.87) 0.8 (0.73, 0.91) 0.72 (0.64, 0.78) 0.74 (0.66, 0.82)
r_prob 0.18 (0.18, 0.18) 0.12 (0.12, 0.12) 0 (0, 0) 0 (0, 0)
rate 0.015 (0.01, 0.019) 0.012 (0.007, 0.017) 0.009 (0, 0.015) 0.011 (0, 0.018)
Taxel_therapies count 25 25 25 25
time 47 (28, 56) 47 (28, 56) 47 (28, 56) 47 (28, 56)
n 66 (42, 97) 42 (30, 66) 19 (8, 35) 17 (9, 33)
post_p 0.82 (0.74, 0.96) 0.79 (0.71, 0.95) 0.75 (0.65, 0.87) 0.8 (0.67, 0.89)
r_prob 0.41 (0.41, 0.41) 0.41 (0.41, 0.41) 0 (0, 0) 0 (0, 0)
rate 0.016 (0.011, 0.02) 0.017 (0.013, 0.02) 0.012 (0, 0.017) 0.013 (0.002, 0.019)
Niraparib count 17 17 17 17
time 41 (24, 57) 41 (24, 57) 41 (24, 57) 41 (24, 57)
n 64 (29, 94) 53 (23, 81) 21 (12, 33) 22 (11, 35)
post_p 0.84 (0.73, 0.9) 0.79 (0.73, 0.92) 0.8 (0.73, 0.89) 0.72 (0.7, 0.82)
r_prob 0 (0, 0) 0.06 (0.06, 0.06) 0.5 (0.5, 0.5) 0.5 (0.5, 0.5)
rate 0.015 (0.01, 0.018) 0.015 (0.009, 0.019) 0.015 (0.007, 0.019) 0.015 (0.011, 0.02)
DRD+ Hormone_therapies count 20 20 20 20
time 43 (29, 56) 43 (29, 56) 43 (29, 56) 43 (29, 56)
n 22 (15, 42) 20 (15, 39) 22 (8, 36) 15 (8, 32)
post_p 0.77 (0.71, 0.91) 0.82 (0.71, 0.92) 0.72 (0.64, 0.81) 0.71 (0.62, 0.81)
r_prob 0 (0, 0) 0 (0, 0) 0 (0, 0) 0 (0, 0)
rate 0.013 (0.007, 0.018) 0.011 (0.003, 0.016) 0.013 (0.005, 0.018) 0.013 (0.005, 0.019)
Taxel_therapies count 22 22 22 22
time 40 (33, 56) 40 (33, 56) 40 (33, 56) 40 (33, 56)
n 24 (10, 34) 22 (13, 38) 14 (9, 24) 17 (10, 29)
post_p 0.81 (0.71, 0.93) 0.76 (0.71, 0.9) 0.76 (0.64, 0.91) 0.75 (0.65, 0.85)
r_prob 0 (0, 0) 0 (0, 0) 0 (0, 0) 0 (0, 0)
rate 0.012 (0.007, 0.018) 0.013 (0.008, 0.021) 0.011 (0.006, 0.016) 0.011 (0, 0.017)
Niraparib count 8 8 8 8
time 43 (32, 54) 43 (32, 54) 43 (32, 54) 43 (32, 54)
n 23 (11, 36) 20 (16, 30) 16 (12, 32) 30 (14, 36)
post_p 0.75 (0.68, 0.8) 0.83 (0.72, 0.89) 0.77 (0.68, 0.81) 0.77 (0.73, 0.86)
r_prob 0.5 (0.5, 0.5) 0.5 (0.5, 0.5) 0.5 (0.5, 0.5) 0.5 (0.5, 0.5)
rate 0.016 (0.011, 0.021) 0.013 (0.008, 0.018) 0.015 (0.01, 0.018) 0.014 (0.011, 0.02)
TEfus+ Hormone_therapies count 12 12 12 12
time 38 (27, 52) 38 (27, 52) 38 (27, 52) 38 (27, 52)
n 24 (14, 47) 32 (18, 47) 18 (9, 25) 16 (9, 23)
post_p 0.77 (0.74, 0.89) 0.74 (0.71, 0.84) 0.74 (0.62, 0.82) 0.77 (0.63, 0.91)
r_prob 0.19 (0.19, 0.19) 0.12 (0.12, 0.12) 0 (0, 0) 0 (0, 0)
rate 0.013 (0.007, 0.016) 0.016 (0.01, 0.019) 0.011 (0, 0.018) 0.009 (0, 0.016)
Taxel_therapies count 11 11 11 11
time 41 (32, 47) 41 (32, 47) 41 (32, 47) 41 (32, 47)
n 29 (14, 35) 46 (23, 63) 29 (8, 46) 15 (5, 26)
post_p 0.79 (0.75, 0.95) 0.81 (0.73, 0.85) 0.73 (0.65, 0.94) 0.71 (0.62, 0.93)
r_prob 0.38 (0.38, 0.38) 0.41 (0.41, 0.41) 0 (0, 0) 0 (0, 0)
rate 0.013 (0.003, 0.022) 0.016 (0.006, 0.018) 0.013 (0.007, 0.019) 0.008 (0.004, 0.014)
Niraparib count 15 15 15 15
time 48 (33, 58) 48 (33, 58) 48 (33, 58) 48 (33, 58)
n 37 (11, 51) 45 (25, 69) 31 (18, 49) 25 (12, 37)
post_p 0.88 (0.75, 0.94) 0.78 (0.7, 0.94) 0.75 (0.71, 0.87) 0.79 (0.7, 0.87)
r_prob 0.06 (0.06, 0.06) 0.06 (0.06, 0.06) 0.5 (0.5, 0.5) 0.5 (0.5, 0.5)
rate 0.014 (0.01, 0.017) 0.015 (0.011, 0.02) 0.018 (0.011, 0.023) 0.016 (0.011, 0.019)
Futility:
signature treatment var — –+ -+- -++ +– +-+ ++- +++
all Hormone_therapies count 23 23 23 23 23 23 23 23
time 37 (25, 56) 37 (25, 56) 37 (25, 56) 37 (25, 56) 37 (25, 56) 37 (25, 56) 37 (25, 56) 37 (25, 56)
n 49 (24, 145) 14 (8, 34) 24 (12, 45) 20 (10, 36) 12 (4, 29) 10 (7, 25) 7 (2, 17) 8 (4, 20)
post_p 0.36 (0.13, 0.45) 0.39 (0.17, 0.49) 0.34 (0.07, 0.48) 0.36 (0.16, 0.47) 0.36 (0.17, 0.49) 0.33 (0.1, 0.47) 0.39 (0.11, 0.49) 0.37 (0.15, 0.5)
r_prob 0.37 (0.37, 0.37) 0.19 (0.19, 0.19) 0.18 (0.18, 0.18) 0.12 (0.12, 0.12) 0 (0, 0) 0 (0, 0) 0 (0, 0) 0 (0, 0)
rate 0.021 (0.016, 0.027) 0.025 (0.018, 0.031) 0.024 (0.018, 0.031) 0.024 (0.015, 0.029) 0.024 (0.014, 0.065) 0.032 (0.017, 0.04) 0.028 (0.016, 0.057) 0.027 (0.017, 0.041)
Taxel_therapies count 35 35 35 35 35 35 35 35
time 31 (7, 50) 31 (7, 50) 31 (7, 50) 31 (7, 50) 31 (7, 50) 31 (7, 50) 31 (7, 50) 31 (7, 50)
n 30 (13, 109) 12 (6, 26) 26 (17, 63) 20 (12, 49) 10 (1, 25) 7 (2, 23) 6 (0, 21) 7 (0, 20)
post_p 0.33 (0.1, 0.47) 0.36 (0.12, 0.46) 0.39 (0.09, 0.46) 0.38 (0.14, 0.49) 0.42 (0.15, 0.48) 0.44 (0.21, 0.49) 0.45 (0.2, 0.49) 0.38 (0.17, 0.48)
r_prob 0.25 (0.25, 0.25) 0.38 (0.38, 0.38) 0.41 (0.41, 0.41) 0.41 (0.41, 0.41) 0 (0, 0) 0 (0, 0) 0 (0, 0) 0 (0, 0)
rate 0.021 (0.015, 0.033) 0.027 (0.018, 0.064) 0.024 (0.016, 0.031) 0.024 (0.018, 0.033) 0.026 (0.015, 0.048) 0.022 (0, 0.04) 0.027 (0, 0.053) 0.026 (0.013, 0.048)
Niraparib count 38 38 38 38 38 38 38 38
time 33 (19, 49) 33 (19, 49) 33 (19, 49) 33 (19, 49) 33 (19, 49) 33 (19, 49) 33 (19, 49) 33 (19, 49)
n 40 (14, 101) 15 (7, 30) 28 (13, 87) 18 (11, 53) 13 (8, 31) 14 (10, 28) 12 (6, 15) 12 (6, 22)
post_p 0.35 (0.1, 0.47) 0.34 (0.19, 0.49) 0.36 (0.15, 0.48) 0.39 (0.16, 0.49) 0.39 (0.14, 0.48) 0.38 (0.21, 0.48) 0.35 (0.16, 0.49) 0.4 (0.23, 0.48)
r_prob 0 (0, 0) 0.06 (0.06, 0.06) 0 (0, 0) 0.06 (0.06, 0.06) 0.5 (0.5, 0.5) 0.5 (0.5, 0.5) 0.5 (0.5, 0.5) 0.5 (0.5, 0.5)
rate 0.023 (0.018, 0.032) 0.025 (0.017, 0.036) 0.022 (0.017, 0.029) 0.022 (0.017, 0.032) 0.024 (0.016, 0.036) 0.022 (0.013, 0.034) 0.024 (0.013, 0.037) 0.023 (0.014, 0.035)
TP53- Hormone_therapies count 167 167 167 167
time 34 (18, 53) 34 (18, 53) 34 (18, 53) 34 (18, 53)
n 46 (29, 144) 15 (7, 40) 13 (6, 35) 12 (6, 34)
post_p 0.3 (0.12, 0.46) 0.38 (0.15, 0.48) 0.41 (0.17, 0.49) 0.41 (0.16, 0.49)
r_prob 0.37 (0.37, 0.37) 0.19 (0.19, 0.19) 0 (0, 0) 0 (0, 0)
rate 0.021 (0.016, 0.027) 0.024 (0.016, 0.038) 0.025 (0.017, 0.044) 0.025 (0.016, 0.045)
Taxel_therapies count 145 145 145 145
time 32 (18, 52) 32 (18, 52) 32 (18, 52) 32 (18, 52)
n 45 (22, 136) 17 (9, 39) 12 (6, 30) 12 (6, 30)
post_p 0.32 (0.1, 0.46) 0.37 (0.11, 0.48) 0.42 (0.22, 0.48) 0.4 (0.18, 0.48)
r_prob 0.25 (0.25, 0.25) 0.38 (0.38, 0.38) 0 (0, 0) 0 (0, 0)
rate 0.021 (0.016, 0.029) 0.024 (0.016, 0.038) 0.025 (0.017, 0.043) 0.026 (0.017, 0.049)
Niraparib count 167 167 167 167
time 28 (18, 52) 28 (18, 52) 28 (18, 52) 28 (18, 52)
n 43 (19, 115) 14 (7, 31) 16 (10, 32) 16 (11, 28)
post_p 0.37 (0.11, 0.47) 0.39 (0.21, 0.48) 0.4 (0.18, 0.49) 0.37 (0.17, 0.48)
r_prob 0 (0, 0) 0.06 (0.06, 0.06) 0.5 (0.5, 0.5) 0.5 (0.5, 0.5)
rate 0.021 (0.015, 0.03) 0.025 (0.018, 0.043) 0.022 (0.014, 0.034) 0.022 (0.014, 0.035)
TP53+ Hormone_therapies count 130 130 130 130
time 34 (22, 52) 34 (22, 52) 34 (22, 52) 34 (22, 52)
n 30 (16, 71) 22 (11, 58) 11 (4, 28) 9 (5, 22)
post_p 0.34 (0.11, 0.48) 0.34 (0.12, 0.48) 0.43 (0.24, 0.49) 0.42 (0.23, 0.49)
r_prob 0.18 (0.18, 0.18) 0.12 (0.12, 0.12) 0 (0, 0) 0 (0, 0)
rate 0.023 (0.016, 0.033) 0.024 (0.018, 0.033) 0.026 (0.016, 0.044) 0.026 (0.017, 0.049)
Taxel_therapies count 159 159 159 159
time 31 (17, 53) 31 (17, 53) 31 (17, 53) 31 (17, 53)
n 34 (20, 82) 26 (15, 61) 9 (4, 25) 8 (4, 23)
post_p 0.32 (0.1, 0.46) 0.35 (0.13, 0.48) 0.44 (0.21, 0.49) 0.43 (0.18, 0.5)
r_prob 0.41 (0.41, 0.41) 0.41 (0.41, 0.41) 0 (0, 0) 0 (0, 0)
rate 0.022 (0.016, 0.03) 0.023 (0.014, 0.03) 0.025 (0.014, 0.044) 0.027 (0.016, 0.049)
Niraparib count 162 162 162 162
time 33 (20, 52) 33 (20, 52) 33 (20, 52) 33 (20, 52)
n 30 (15, 85) 22 (11, 59) 12 (7, 26) 13 (8, 23)
post_p 0.37 (0.11, 0.48) 0.4 (0.14, 0.48) 0.39 (0.17, 0.48) 0.36 (0.16, 0.47)
r_prob 0 (0, 0) 0.06 (0.06, 0.06) 0.5 (0.5, 0.5) 0.5 (0.5, 0.5)
rate 0.022 (0.016, 0.03) 0.023 (0.016, 0.035) 0.024 (0.015, 0.036) 0.023 (0.016, 0.039)
DRD+ Hormone_therapies count 84 84 84 84
time 46 (33, 56) 46 (33, 56) 46 (33, 56) 46 (33, 56)
n 19 (8, 40) 20 (10, 38) 13 (5, 31) 12 (6, 26)
post_p 0.34 (0.1, 0.48) 0.35 (0.13, 0.48) 0.34 (0.15, 0.46) 0.37 (0.17, 0.47)
r_prob 0 (0, 0) 0 (0, 0) 0 (0, 0) 0 (0, 0)
rate 0.025 (0.018, 0.04) 0.023 (0.018, 0.038) 0.026 (0.018, 0.043) 0.025 (0.019, 0.038)
Taxel_therapies count 78 78 78 78
time 47 (33, 57) 47 (33, 57) 47 (33, 57) 47 (33, 57)
n 20 (9, 36) 19 (8, 37) 14 (7, 30) 14 (6, 30)
post_p 0.38 (0.13, 0.48) 0.39 (0.12, 0.49) 0.35 (0.13, 0.48) 0.36 (0.1, 0.47)
r_prob 0 (0, 0) 0 (0, 0) 0 (0, 0) 0 (0, 0)
rate 0.023 (0.018, 0.038) 0.024 (0.018, 0.036) 0.026 (0.019, 0.042) 0.027 (0.019, 0.041)
Niraparib count 148 148 148 148
time 32 (20, 53) 32 (20, 53) 32 (20, 53) 32 (20, 53)
n 16 (11, 35) 18 (11, 33) 13 (7, 25) 13 (8, 24)
post_p 0.38 (0.16, 0.48) 0.39 (0.14, 0.48) 0.39 (0.17, 0.48) 0.4 (0.18, 0.48)
r_prob 0.5 (0.5, 0.5) 0.5 (0.5, 0.5) 0.5 (0.5, 0.5) 0.5 (0.5, 0.5)
rate 0.023 (0.016, 0.034) 0.022 (0.013, 0.033) 0.023 (0.014, 0.035) 0.023 (0.014, 0.034)
TEfus+ Hormone_therapies count 133 133 133 133
time 36 (26, 54) 36 (26, 54) 36 (26, 54) 36 (26, 54)
n 17 (9, 40) 24 (11, 64) 14 (7, 32) 11 (5, 23)
post_p 0.38 (0.16, 0.49) 0.34 (0.12, 0.48) 0.35 (0.14, 0.47) 0.41 (0.18, 0.49)
r_prob 0.19 (0.19, 0.19) 0.12 (0.12, 0.12) 0 (0, 0) 0 (0, 0)
rate 0.023 (0.017, 0.039) 0.024 (0.018, 0.033) 0.025 (0.018, 0.043) 0.027 (0.016, 0.041)
Taxel_therapies count 136 136 136 136
time 37 (22, 55) 37 (22, 55) 37 (22, 55) 37 (22, 55)
n 17 (9, 41) 28 (17, 68) 14 (7, 33) 10 (4, 24)
post_p 0.36 (0.11, 0.47) 0.3 (0.09, 0.48) 0.38 (0.14, 0.49) 0.41 (0.13, 0.49)
r_prob 0.38 (0.38, 0.38) 0.41 (0.41, 0.41) 0 (0, 0) 0 (0, 0)
rate 0.024 (0.015, 0.037) 0.024 (0.017, 0.031) 0.026 (0.016, 0.043) 0.027 (0.017, 0.047)
Niraparib count 147 147 147 147
time 33 (23, 51) 33 (23, 51) 33 (23, 51) 33 (23, 51)
n 15 (7, 35) 24 (12, 58) 17 (11, 35) 14 (8, 26)
post_p 0.35 (0.12, 0.48) 0.37 (0.11, 0.48) 0.37 (0.15, 0.47) 0.4 (0.18, 0.48)
r_prob 0.06 (0.06, 0.06) 0.06 (0.06, 0.06) 0.5 (0.5, 0.5) 0.5 (0.5, 0.5)
rate 0.024 (0.017, 0.041) 0.022 (0.016, 0.036) 0.022 (0.015, 0.035) 0.023 (0.015, 0.037)